2x2 Matrix for Scenario Planning

Scenario crafting and exploration can be intimidating. Enter the 2x2 matrix, an excellent and straightforward tool to create data driven scenarios.

The 2x2 concept is simple; take a driver (large scale change) and an uncertainty (the part nobody knows yet), and map out 4 plausible futures from that intersection. We spent a recent WKF lab learning the 2x2 approach and considering plausible futures of consumption, here's what it looks like:

And, here’s how you can apply this to your own and your clients questions about the future:

• Pick a driver. In our case, the growing tension in the post-purchase relationship (repair rights, resale, subscriptions vs. ownership).

• Identify the uncertainty (e.g. does the market swing toward permanence or disposability)?

• Plot the 2x2 to explore the 4 different possibilities that could emerge

• Work through the quadrants to describe each scenario. Each quadrant forces different questions. In our example, we ask how might the consumer behave? What do they value? How does a brand win in this world vs. that one?

If this sounds interesting to you, we’d love to see you at an upcoming lab! Every session is live, collaborative and unique.